On the Indiana Senate front, The Hill looks at five members with significant political motivations who will determine whether the Democrats’ health care bill lives or dies.  At the top of the list?  Indiana Congressman and announced Senate candidate Brad Ellsworth, who is under even more pressure this week after fellow Hoosier Democrat Joe Donnelly indicated that he intends to flip his vote to “no.”  Ellsworth probably didn’t think he would be a Senate candidate when he cast his yes vote in November. What people tend to forget is that Ellsworth was not only a supporter of the Stupak Amendment, but a key player in getting it inserted into the bill. What’s more, Ellsworth at the time told a local paper, “I will not support a bill that I believe would result in federal tax dollars being used to pay for abortions.” If there’s no Stupak language in the coming bill, Ellsworth will be torn between living up to those words and pleasing the Democratic leaders who have anointed him as their Senate candidate.

In Nevada, the Las Vegas Review-Journal editorial board takes Harry Reid to task for his campaign slogan, “I'm independent, just like Nevada,” writing that Reid hopes that if he repeats a campaign slogan enough, it will become true.  There's no political independence in standing next to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi at every photo opportunity, nor in championing the far-left agenda of President Barack Obama.

And more questions being raised about the White House in the face of repeated allegations by Pennsylvania Democrat Senate Joe Sestak that he was offered a job by the Obama W.H. if he would agree not to run for the Senate against Arlen Specter; allegations, which CNS News noted recently, W.H. Press Secretary Robert Gibbs has continued to dodge on camera over the last few weeks.

On the Missouri Senate front, Democrat Senate candidate Robin Carnahan probably thought she was being clever by conveniently planning a trip to Washington on the same day President Obama was in the Show Me State, but her absence only sparked more questions about her campaign.  Politico reports that, [C]arnahan picked a truly lousy day for a trip to Washington. And her Republican enemies leveraged President Barack Obama’s presence here into a daylong attack on her.   The Missouri secretary of state had been scheduled to attend low-profile fundraising and official meetings in Washington on Wednesday. But the president’s decision to stage a health care speech in this St. Louis suburb sparked speculation about her absence from his side — and highlighted her connection to a Washington establishment she had hoped to distance herself from. It also didn’t help that one of the Carnahan fundraisers in Washington was hosted by Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.), who has been excoriated by the GOP for her role in the so-called Louisiana Purchase tucked into the Senate health care bill….“It says a lot about Robin Carnahan’s priorities and the state of the Democrat Party brand these days when she’d rather stand with the author of the Louisiana Purchase in Washington than stand with the president of the United States in Missouri,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brian Walsh.

• The Washington Times reports that the Missouri GOP also weighed in and mocked Carnahan's absence, saying she certainly should have taken the opportunity to bask in the high-profile visit just eight months before the vote.  "Barack Obama should be campaigning his heart out for Robin Carnahan - after all, Carnahan has pledged to rubber-stamp his agenda of a government takeover of health care, job-killing cap-and-tax, the failed stimulus bill and much more," said Lloyd Smith, executive director of the Missouri Republican Party.

• Fox News noted that, [I]t’s not lost on political pundits that Carnahan isn’t appearing with the President, as his track record for getting people elected is not nearly as solid as previous presidents. In 2009, Obama appeared in New Jersey for incumbent Governor Jon Corzine, in Virginia for Gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds, and in the most high stakes race, in Massachusetts for Martha Coakley, who was running to replace Edward Kennedy. All three candidates lost.

• While the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that hundreds of protesters appeared in St. Charles and in downtown St. Louis, many to express opposition to the health care plan. Outgoing U.S. Sen. Christopher "Kit" Bond, R-Mo., said the president's speeches in St. Charles and elsewhere — he was in Philadelphia on Monday and will be in Ohio next week — are an attempt by Obama to use oratorical skills to sell a plan Americans don't want. "He is trying to cram it through. He has shown that he is not listening," Bond, who is retiring when his term ends this year, said. "He thinks if he talks very slowly, we will understand."  U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., who is running for Bond's seat, proffered a more measured approach to health care, endorsing incremental steps — such as limiting lawsuits and allowing patients to shop across state lines for insurance. "Go back to the things that everybody believes would change the system. Do a handful of those in the next couple of years. Then see what needs to be done," Blunt said.

Talking Points Memo reported that Senator Harry Reid spoke earlier today to a group of “progressive” reporters, pundits, and bloggers in which he blamed Republicans for obstructionism – apparently ignoring that until recently, Democrats had a 60-vote supermajority in the Senate. Reid then announced that he would be moving forward with “filibuster reform” legislation. 

In fact, according to TPM, Reid even claimed that GOP “obstructionism” was to blame for his much-maligned decision to yank – and ultimately scale-down – a bipartisan jobs bill last month. GOP obstructionism?  Here’s what actually happened last month, as reported by Politico:

• Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid led colleagues and the White House to believe he supported a bipartisan jobs bill — only to scuttle the plan as soon as it was released Thursday over concerns it could be used to batter Democratic incumbents, according to Senate sources.  Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) and Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) worked for weeks with Reid's blessing and frequent involvement to craft an $85 billion jobs bill, a measure that seemed destined to break the partisan logjam that has ground the Senate to a halt.  But as Baucus, Grassley and President Barack Obama were preparing to celebrate a rare moment of bipartisan Kumbaya on Thursday, Reid stunned a meeting of Senate Democrats by announcing he was scrapping Baucus-Grassley, replacing it with a much cheaper, more narrowly crafted, $15 billion version.  (Lisa Lerer & Glen Thrush, Reid’s About-Face Stuns Dems, White House, Politico, 02/11/10)

But that wasn’t even the most egregious aspect of Reid’s remarks today. In announcing that he will move forward with filibuster reform legislation, voters are reminded that Reid has made countless statements over the years defending the use and importance of the filibuster. Reid went so far as to declare in his own book, The Good Fight, that “without robust debate, the Senate is crippled.” And while the Democrats were in the minority in 2005, Reid also said on the Senate floor that “the filibuster is an important check on executive power and part of every Senator’s right to free speech in the United States Senate.” 

So what’s changed Senator Reid, other than the fact that Democrats are now in the Majority?

NRSC Communications Director Brian Walsh released the following statement in response:

“When Republicans help retire Harry Reid in November at least he’ll be able to fall back on a second career teaching a college course for aspiring politicians on how to abuse power and skirt the rules.  We’ve really seen it all from Harry Reid in recent months though – from the Louisiana Purchase, to the Cornhusker Kickback, to Gator-aid.  I guess we can call this one the ‘Filibuster Flip-Flop.’  The reality is that behind Harry Reid’s faux outrage is a professional politician who will do or say anything to get his way and ram through the liberal Democrat agenda in Congress. 

“Unfortunately, as has happened so many times throughout his career, Reid’s words come back to haunt him.  So we look forward to hearing him explain why free speech and the importance of a ‘robust debate’ were so important when Democrats were in the minority, while he’s preparing to cast both principles aside when he’s in the majority today.  Until then, we’ve all seen once again, and firsthand, the partisan, bullying manner in which Harry Reid runs the U.S. Senate, and a major reason why Nevada voters want fresh, new leadership for their State.”

In New Hampshire, Rasmussen Reports shows that Paul Hodes is trailing two potential Republican candidates by ten points.  Rasmussen explains:

"Two Republican hopefuls now post 10-point leads over likely Democratic nominee Paul Hodes in New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state again finds former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte leading Hodes, who has no major challengers for his party’s Senate nomination. This time, she posts a 47% to 37% lead over Hodes. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and 12% are undecided.

But now businessman Bill Binnie, a political unknown who has introduced himself to the state largely through television advertising, leads Hodes 46% to 36%. Four percent (4%) favor another candidate. Fourteen percent (14%) are undecided.

As President Barack Obama brings his 59 percent disapproval rating to the Show-Me State today and stumps for his costly and contentious health care agenda, Democrat Senate candidate Robin Carnahan (D-MO) is strangely nowhere to be found.

Despite Carnahan’s decision to physically avoid the leader of her own party, she has not attempted to distance herself from embracing his unpopular economic agenda, including Obama’s failed stimulus debacle and trillion-dollar health care proposal.

According to CNN, "Carnahan’s campaign says her event in Washington was scheduled before the White House announced that the president will be in Missouri Wednesday." However, U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO) publicly announced the date of the President’s visit nearly one month before his arrival.

Did someone forget to tell Robin Carnahan that the President was coming to town?

Politico may have tapped into a note of frustration from Carnahan’s campaign yesterday when it reported that, "when asked why Obama was raising money for McCaskill rather than Carnahan, [Carnahan’s spokesman] Zakula responded, ‘that’s a question for the White House.’ He also could not say whether Obama would campaign with Carnahan this fall."

The Kansas City Star reported that while Carnahan skips the President’s visit, she is in Washington D.C. raising campaign cash during two political fundraisers. Last night Carnahan raised money at the home of U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and this evening she will attend an event that is "sponsored by organized labor."

According to the Associated Press, Carnahan said that she would have voted for final passage of the President’s health care bill - which included the Louisiana Purchase that was the sweetheart deal authored by Landrieu - when it passed the Senate last year on Christmas Eve. Carnahan also supports the job-killing card check legislation - a key initiative for the labor bosses who are raising money for her campaign tonight.

Carnahan’s fundraising events this week - which were apparently impossible to reschedule - come on the heels of her recent Northwest tour that included a stop in Seattle, Washington to raise money with the liberal League of Conservation Voters (LCV).

"Robin Carnahan can physically run from President Obama while he’s in Missouri, but she can’t run from her support of Obama’s unpopular and costly health care bill, his massive stimulus debacle, and his tax-and-spend economic agenda in Washington," said National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) spokeswoman Amber Marchand.

"Carnahan’s absence today raises some important questions: Did the President seek out an opportunity to campaign for Carnahan, or has the President written off Carnahan’s vapid candidacy in a swing state that he lost in 2008?" Marchand continued. "Did Claire McCaskill forget to tell Robin Carnahan that the President was coming to Missouri when she announced it to the press nearly one month ago, and is Carnahan’s schedule so important that she was unwilling to make adjustments in order to stand with the leader of her party in her own home state?"

"Clearly Carnahan and Obama are avoiding each other today, but the Democrat Senate candidate cannot dodge the fact that she has fully embraced the President’s unpopular and costly economic proposals in Washington," Marchand continued. "This November, we’re confident that Missourians will reject Carnahan’s rubberstamp support for Obama’s out-of-control spending agenda when they elect Roy Blunt to the U.S. Senate."

Speaking of ugly Democrat primaries, Hotline’s OnCall reported that PA Dem chair T.J. Rooney slammed Joe Sestak in a letter yesterday to the Congressman and Democrat Senate candidate regarding reports that he pays his staff far below the minimum wage.  "As Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chairman, I am increasingly concerned about the numerous news media reports that you are in violation of state and federal law for failing to pay your campaign employees at least the minimum wage," Rooney wrote to Sestak.  "If you were to be successful in your primary campaign, you would be leading the Democratic ticket in this fall's critical elections for state and local office. It is inconceivable to me that our standard bearer wouldn't be paying his workers the minimum wage. Particularly at a time of deep recession, we can't hand an issue like this to the Republicans or have the candidate leading our ticket being investigated for such violations," Rooney added.  Meanwhile, Rooney also urged Sestak to vote more often on the House floor. Sestak has missed more votes than any other member of the PA delegation, and yet public polls still show Specter with big leads.

In Arkansas, Politico reports that the primary between Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is already heating up over the issue of health care. The incumbent briefly implied Tuesday that she might be open to supporting a bill through the reconciliation process, before clarifying...

In North Carolina, another divisive primary grows deeper for the Democrats, as support for the public option is dividing the party’s candidates, just as it’s done in Arkansas. Mother Jones reports that, [t]hough the public option's current prospects for passage in Washington remain dim,  the proposal appears to be turning into a new rallying cry for liberal Senate hopefuls.

In Washington State, The Hill reports this morning that no state swung for Republicans in 1994 more than Washington state, and if a GOP wave crashes again in 2010, it’s looking more likely that Senator Patty Murray could be swept away.

On the Nevada Senate front, Politico’s Morning Score reports that Republicans plan to hit Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid on a new Brookings report showing the state of Nevada came in last among states in the receipt of federal aid distributed on a per-capita basis.One of Reid's top arguments in his reelection campaign has been that he's the candidate who can deliver cash for his home state.

In Illinois, after a very tepid endorsement from the White House yesterday, Alexi Giannoulias’ embattled Senate campaign continues to take on water and Investors’ Business Daily has a must-read editorial on the issues confronting his campaign and the White House.  Another bank failure is nothing new these days — except if the bank is run by the family of a U.S. Senate candidate who profited handsomely and lent millions to a convicted felon. But then, that's the Chicago way.

On the Missouri Senate front, it looks like after watching the aftermath of rallies for Jon Corzine, Creigh Deeds, and Martha Coakley, Democrat Senate candidate Robin Carnahan is taking the opposite tact and leaving the state as President Obama brings his 59% disapproval rating to the Show-Me State today.

As embattled Illinois Democrat Senate hopeful Alexi Giannoulias (D-IL) heads to the White House this evening, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) posed questions to President Barack Obama and his Administration regarding Giannoulias’ ethically-challenged resume and failing family bank.

• Will President Obama endorse and campaign alongside Giannoulias, considering his ethically-challenged background?
  • President Obama previously said: “Bankers don’t need another vote in the U.S. Senate,” and decried “fat cats” who are getting “rewarded for their failure.” Considering there’s now a “fat cat” banker who is running for his former Senate seat and looking to get rewarded for his own banking failures, how does Giannoulias differ from these “fat cats” who Obama vehemently condemned?
• It’s been reported that Giannoulias may meet with David Axelrod today, who previously voiced concerns about Giannoulias’ background and lamented the fact that the White House was unable to recruit a stronger candidate in Lisa Madigan. Does Axelrod still think Madigan was a stronger candidate?

As the contentious health care battle continues in our nation’s capital, Missouri Democrat Senate hopeful Robin Carnahan is raising campaign cash at the home of the author of the Louisiana Purchase, U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) this evening.

According to a fundraising invitation, Carnahan will hold a reception at the lavish Landrieu-Snellings Residence located in Southeast Washington, DC. Tonight’s fundraiser with Landrieu comes on the heels of Carnahan’s recent Northwest tour, which included a stop in Seattle, Washington to raise money with the liberal League of Conservation Voters (LCV).

As Politico notes below, Senator Blanche Lincoln is already shifting to the left in response to her Democrat primary challenger, Bill Halter. In response to Lincoln’s latest equivocation NRSC Press Secretary Amber Marchand said:

Speaking with Capitol Hill reporters yesterday, NRSC Chairman Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) said that if some type of health care legislation is able to limp its way out of Congress, Republican candidates across the country are poised to make it the premiere issue of the fall campaign.

Politico: GOP sharpens midterm attack line

• While Cornyn said his personal preference would be to stop a bill entirely, his campaign committee is already preparing its attack line for a scenario that assumes Democrats squeeze a bill through the controversial reconciliation process in the next month. The Texas senator said Republican candidates would be asking voters, “Are your health care costs lower?”  “And I think the answer to that would be, no, they’re not,” said Cornyn, answering his own question in a briefing with reporters.”

CNN: Cornyn says health care to boost GOP at polls

• Democratic push for health care reform this year will translate into significant GOP gains at the ballot box regardless of whether or not a bill actually passes, according to the Republican senator overseeing his party's efforts to retake the chamber in November.  "Democrats think by passing the bill they'll be able to get it behind them and change the subject to something else like jobs," said Texas Sen. John Cornyn at a news briefing Monday. "But this will do the opposite. This will make sure that health care is the number one issue that the election is won or lost on in November"…Cornyn cited the Democratic handling of the health care issue as a top reason why Republicans are running strong races for eight seats currently held by Democrats in Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania.

MSNBC’s First Read: Cornyn: 'Health care is the No. 1 issue'

• A year ago, the economy was the one and only issue that mattered. It certainly remains the overarching one. But Sen. John Cornyn, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee made it clear he wants his candidates to focus on health care.  Because Democrats have said passing their health-reform bills would lower costs, the question Cornyn said that should be asked of voters will be, "Are your health-care costs lower now in Nov. 2010 by virtue of passing this health care bill,” the Texas Republican, wearing his signature black cowboy boots under a dark pinstripe suit, told a roomful of reporters at a Monday morning briefing about the 2010 Senate landscape. "And I think the answer to that will be, ‘No, they’re not.’"

Hotline OnCall: Cornyn: It's The Health Care, Stupid

• NRSC chair John Cornyn thinks Dems haven't learned anything from Sen. Scott Brown's (R-MA) win in Jan., and he's OK with it.  Speaking to reporters at a briefing this morning, Cornyn posited that if health care reform passes, it will be "the No. 1 issue that the election is won or lost on in November."  "Obviously the No. 1 issue that the American people care about is jobs with the 9.7% unemployment rate," he said. He pointed out that Pres. Obama said during his SOTU address that the government would turn its attention to jobs but instead, health care has gotten more of the focus. 

In Missouri, the State GOP is raising the legitimate question of why President Obama is traveling to Missouri tomorrow to raise money for Claire McCaskill when she isn’t up until 2012, instead of for candidate Robin Carnahan. 

In Arkansas, Arkansas News columnist John Brummett asks: “Can Blanche Go Home Again?” The New York Times dispatched a reporter last week to Helena-West Helena, the hometown of U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln where the local white people might offer a pretty good gauge of broader attitudes by our state’s decisive rural conservatives….